Wednesday, March 7, 2012

South American mining boom is now in the rearview mirror: Citigroup

In Latin America the decade-long bull run for mining and hydrocarbons is mostly behind us, according to Jason Press, a regional specialist analyzing equities for Citigroup.

He made the comments to Bloomberg Surveillance on Tuesday. (Audio link is here.)

In Latin America, Press believes that the financial and consumer sectors will have stronger growth. Mining, he says, is mostly neutral with a few modest gains.

Growth for the region will accelerate toward the ends of the year due to easing monetary policies and should be set at 3.7 percent later this year, accelerating to 4.4% in 2013. Leaders will be Colombia, Peru and Brazil.

Colombia is a leader because of the improving security picture.

“We love Colombia for the long term,” says Press.

Regarding Peru, Press believes the political risk in the country is overplayed and likes the current president and how he is managing the country.

“It has amazing growth potential at above five percent, and they are pursuing orthodox monetary policy,” says Press.

Brazil is preferred because the country has more resilient earnings and more diversified economy, compared to other countries in the region that are more closely tied to commodities.